Traditional Finance News

Equity futures registered a positive surge on Tuesday following a provisional agreement between the Biden administration and Republican legislators concerning an elevation of the U.S. debt ceiling. Congressional voting on the proposed legislation is poised to occur as early as Wednesday. This accord transpires mere days ahead of the impending "X date" on June 5, a critical juncture defined by the U.S. Treasury Department as the earliest potential instance of a U.S. default on its debt obligations. The primary consensus on this resolution was initially unveiled on the preceding Saturday evening.

The market was closed Monday due to Memorial Day.

The probability of a 25bps rate hike at the next Fed meeting on June 14th has now reached 60%, surpassing the probability of no rate hikes of 40%.

S&P 500 futures gained 0.6% and is trading at its highest level since August 19th. Prices are about to reach the top-end of this rising wedge pattern that has been in place since September. The S&P500 is bullish but still underperforming Nasdaq by a wide margin as the former is up 3% since Wednesday while Nasdaq squeezed by 7% in the same time frame. The S&P500 is trading 14% away from a record high.

Nasdaq futures climbed 1.3% and recently broke out of a rising wedge pattern which serves as a very bullish signal for the market. Given its distance from the 20-day moving average, it’s very possible that a pullback is in sight but the timing is difficult to estimate with certainty. Nasdaq is trading 15% away from its record high

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has witnessed increased volatility tied with a wider trading range as the cryptocurrency finally follows the stock market higher after weeks of underperforming equities.

Options IVs remain near all-time lows despite BTC reclaiming $28,000 while the futures market has been leading the charge higher.

BTCUSDT rebounded off the recent low of 25,900 and surged to our resistance level of 28,500 and pulled back from this level. Bitcoin was unable to close above the 50-day moving average, a key important level for trend shifts.

Given that prices and the RSI are both capped by a declining trend line while prices remain below the 50-day moving average, we are changing our stance from neutral as long as prices are trading below 28,500.

Ethereum

ETHUSDT has improved to the 1900 mark and is currently trading above the 50-day moving average, as opposed to Bitcoin, which didn’t manage to close above that level.

On an intraday basis, prices closed above a declining trend line which has reversed the short-term trend to more bullish.

If prices stay above this breakout level then it looks more bullish than Bitcoin.

ETHBTC has continued to grind higher. Since the start of the month, ETH has outperformed BTC by almost 8%.