• Cipher Digest
  • Posts
  • Fed is Divided, BTC Ready to Fall?, Web3 News +more | Cipher Digest

Fed is Divided, BTC Ready to Fall?, Web3 News +more | Cipher Digest

Shorter one today, but just as valuable! Lets take a look into what is going on in the word of crypto!

Good Afternoon Investors, Traders, Collectors, and anyone else who has stumbled on our daily newspaper!

Let’s jump into what you can find in today’s update!

In Todays Digest:

  • Market Overview 🌚

  • Latest in Web3 🚨

  • Chart of the Day- BTC Dominance 👇

  • Crypto Market Outlook 📊

  • Federal Reserve - A House Divided? 🇺🇸

  • Tweet of the Day 🐦

Latest in Web3 🚨

  • Binance Australia offices were searched by the regulator as part of a derivatives probe

  • UK Lords pass a bill to help seize and freeze crypto used for crime

  • Crypto asset manager Valkyrie files for Spot Bitcoin ETF, naming Coinbase as SSA counterpart.

  • Revolut to delist Solana, Polygon, and Cardano due to SEC lawsuit

  • Singapore Bank DBS starts e-CNY collection platform

  • South Africa sets licensing deadline for digital asset exchanges market

Interested in Trading, Early Project Launches, and more profitable crypto plays?

Chart of the Day - BTC Dominance 👇

On June 29th, we made a post about Bitcoin Dominance, which refers to Bitcoin's share of the overall cryptocurrency market.

The next day, it fell by 1.61%. We had suggested that the daily chart was showing a potential early sign of a downward trend. This was happening within a specific time period starting on April 19th, 2021, when Bitcoin reached a price of $65,000 for the first time.

Now, let's connect this to alt-coins, which are cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. After this particular week, alt-coins performed much better than Bitcoin. On June 30th, the same day Bitcoin Dominance fell by 1.61%, the price of a coin called Maker (MKR) increased by around 21%.

Based on these observations, we expect Bitcoin Dominance to continue falling, and we believe that alt-coins will perform better than Bitcoin. The daily structure of the market has shifted towards a downward trend, as we had predicted.

Crypto Market Outlook 📊

The BTC OI market has seen a sharp uptick in the number of people placing bets on the direction of the market.

Interestingly, there's been a significant rise in the number of people who are holding a futures position of at least 25 Bitcoins.

That’s alooottt of Bitcoins.

These figures have JUMPED from a recent low of 94 to a HEFTY 121 in the week starting June 27.

This data comes courtesy of the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

But what does this mean?

Typically, an uptick in the count of “big-time” stakeholders means that there is a growing interest and confidence in BTC among institutional investors. It suggests that more significant players are entering the market and are willing to commit a larger amount of money to BTC trades. This increase can mean higher trading volumes and potentially add liquidity to the market.

Higher trading volumes and increased liquidity can have both positive and negative effects on the BTC price.

On the positive side, it can indicate a growing demand for BTC, which may drive the price upward. But the main thing is that another big move is inbound VERY SOON, with the amount of liquidity hitting the markets!

BTC 4H Chart

From a technical perspective, BTC continues to range within the range between $29,900 and $31,450. As prices pulled back this morning towards the trend support level, we believe a rebound is in sight towards $30,650 and potentially $30,800. (Which is the resistance drawn on the chart above)

Federal Reserve - A House Divided? 🇺🇸

Today, wall street JUMPED back into action after a short holiday break, and U.S. stocks have been through a slight pullback. All eyes were keenly set on the incoming release of the meeting minutes from the Fed, which came out just moments ago.

These much-anticipated minutes, from the Fed meeting held between June 13-14, are meant to shine some light on the trajectory of the monetary policy. The decision to maintain a steady interest rate didn't raise eyebrows, however, the market was somewhat taken aback by suggestions of at least two more hikes before this year concludes.

So what was in the Magical Minutes?

Fed officials were less united at their June meeting than their unanimous decision suggested. Looks like there is some unrest in the Fed house.

This was because some favoured rate increases but went along with the decision to leave policy unchanged, per Bloomberg.

As a result, the SP500 is pulling back from its recent high and is trending lower towards our target of 4425.

Markets don’t like uncertainty.

BUT… a break above 4500 would trigger bullish implications for US stocks, sending prices higher towards 4580.

If prices do move down, then we might see them converge towards the 20-day moving average near 4400.

Tweet of the Day 🐦

Useful Links 💸